KSAC Scorecard: A tale of garrisons and personalities

Posted on December 23, 2011

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St. Andrew East

Andre Hylton (PNP)

Saphire Longmore (JLP)

St. Andrew Eastern is in the ranks of  Central Manchester and South East St. Mary where battleground aptly describes the scenario. In 2007 public figure, Trevor Munroe, was not able to wrestle the seat from St. Aubyn Bartlett and many may ask if Munroe couldn’t do it why will Hylton even stand a chance. To this ExpatOnTheGo says, Hylton is a dynamic people person who is a senior & seasoned Rotarian (who know how to charm folks and network like a Rotarian). Who will win? This is another seat to be won or lost on the day –  The JLP has managed victory by small margins in the last two elections and is set to do so again if the work on the ground by newly imputed Longmore. Note however that Hylton will not go down easily.

Communities include: Mona & Papine

 

JLP

PNP

Difference in Votes between candidates

2002

 5558

 5056

 502 (JLP)

2007

 5907

5308

 599 (JLP)

St. Andrew Western

Anthony Hylton (PNP) EXPECTED WINNER

George Duhaney (JLP)

Hylton has nothing to fear from Duhaney. There a greater chance of snow in Portmore for two weeks non-stop in July than for the PNP to lose this seat.

Communities include: Duhaney Park & Waterhouse

 

JLP

PNP

Difference in Votes between candidates

2002

 4004

 6549

 2545 (PNP)

2007

5116

8155

 3039 (PNP)

St. Andrew North East

Delroy Chuck (JLP) EXPECTED WINNER

John-Paul White (PNP).

There were many who wondered why Delroy Chuck entered representational politics and even predicted that he would not last. Guess he now has the last laugh given he has already won the seat twice and is expected to do so again on December 29th. The margin of victory in previous elections is too wide for there to even be a true attempt to challenge the JLP in this constituency.

Communities include: Barbican & Waterloo

 

JLP

PNP

Difference in Votes between candidates

2002

 6033

2811

 3222 (JLP)

2007

5764

2814

 2950 (JLP)

St. Andrew South East

Dwight Nelson (JLP)

Julien Robinson (PNP)

Again another battleground seat and the dynamics here will include personalities. On one side there is Nelson who is the Minister of National Security and boyhood friend of former PM Golding. He goes up against relative newcomer Julian Robinson who seems more suited to the priesthood than to politics in troubled neighbourhoods such as Mountain View. Can Nelson pull out the stops and chart this one up for the JLP? Will he be able to overcome his recent mishaps? Does the PNP chart this as a must win seat and have the resources to aid Robinson both physically and financially? Given these unknown variables ExpatOnTheGo will not suggest a winner at this time but encourages everyone to keep their attention on St. Andrew South East as this constituency may indicate the overall national winner.

Communities include: Vineyard Town & Trafalgar Road

 

JLP

PNP

Difference in Votes between candidates

2002

 4100

 4959

 859 (PNP)

2007

4618

5187

 569 (PNP)

St. Andrew North Central

Karl Samuda (JLP) EXPECTED WINNER

Leanna Phillips (PNP)

Samuda is unbeatable at this time unless he is suffering from undetected early onset alzheimers. I invite anyone to challenge me on this point.

Communities include: Norbrook & Whitehall

 

JLP

PNP

Difference in Votes between candidates

2002

 5831

3425

 2406 (JLP)

2007

 6254

3488

 2766 (JLP)

St. Andrew South

Omar Davis (PNP) EXPECTED WINNER

Dennis Messias (JLP)

Omar Davies will trample his opponent whether or not he visits the communities between now and December 29th. What is clear from the data is that voter turn 0ut for the PNP declined significantly between 2002 and 2007 but this does not raise any alarm in a seat where the margin of victory in 2002 was over 11000 votes.

Communities include: Admiral Town & Trench Town

 

JLP

PNP

Difference in Votes between candidates

2002

 1220

12 225

 11005 (PNP)

2007

 1027

 8314

 7291 (PNP)

St. Andrew West Central

Andrew Holness (JLP) EXPECTED WINNER

Patrick Roberts (PNP)

There have been grumbles about the possibility of the PM losing his seat but if one ignores the spoken word and focuses on the actions of both parties then the truth will become apparent. No Jamaican political party will risk its leader losing a seat at the polls – if the JLP thought this to be a credible risk the PM would be in a nice ‘safe’ seat in Clarendon or elsewhere in Kingston. Take Tivoli out of the mix as ExpatOnTheGo is willing to gamble that PM Holness will never take that route. For a while rumours circulated that the PNP would replace Roberts but nomination day has passed and he is the candidate. What do you read from this action? Is that the action of a party smelling victory against the PM? I think not..

Communities include: Olympic Gardens & Molynes Gardens

 

JLP

PNP

Difference in Votes between candidates

2002

6851

 5436

1415 (JLP)

2007

 6933

 5875

1058 (JLP)

St. Andrew West Rural

Andrew Gallimore (JLP) EXPECTED WINNER

Paul Buchanan (PNP)

Andrew Gallimore will once again sit in Parliament as the representative for St. Andrew West Rural.  The JLP managed to increase the margin of victory from 1766 in 2002 to 2321 in 2007. That is a story within itself that speaks volumes about the chances of a PNP victory in 2011.

Communities include: Stony Hill & Lawrence Tavern

 

JLP

PNP

Difference in Votes between candidates

2002

 8406

6640

 1766 (JLP)

2007

 9578

7257

2321 (JLP)

St. Andrew East Rural

Damion Crawford (PNP)

Joan Gordon Webley (JLP)

There are constituencies and then there are mammoth sized constituencies such as St. Andrew East Rural. The geographical landscape is wide and the communities span a spectrum ranging from rural to urban. Gordon-Webley is not a stranger to political representation and Crawford has honed skills from his days as PNPYO president. Victory in this seat requires vim and vigour as well as an unwavering commitment to hard work. What will happen on election day? No one can be certain given that  both candidates possess the energy and drive to conquer the hardships of this constituency. The recent nomination day  stunt is politically cute but may not have any significant effect on the outcome. As it stands the polls are showing that Gordon-Webley may be returned to parliament in the same seat as she last served in the honorable House but Crawford is like a rabid dog on her tail. Only time will tell who makes the stroll into Gordon House.

Communities include: Gordon Town & Harbour View

 

JLP

PNP

Difference in Votes between candidates

2002

7023

6459

564 (JLP)

2007

8315

8045

270 (JLP)

St. Andrew East Central

Peter Phillips (PNP) EXPECTED WINNER

Beverly Prince (JLP)

Peter Phillips will once again be returned to Parliament without a glitch. While this constituency may not be as garrison as several others in KSAC it is still a certain win for the Opposition party.

Communities include: Hagley Park Road & Maxfield Park

 

JLP

PNP

Difference in Votes between candidates

2002

 3467

6580

3113 (PNP)

2007

 3926

6382

 2456 (PNP)

St. Andrew South West

Portia Simpson-Miller (PNP) EXPECTED WINNER

Victor Hyde (JLP)

Time is wasted even talking about win or lose in this seat.  Simpson-Miller is unbeatable in her constituency. She will beat Hyde like he has never been beaten before.

Communities include: Whitfield Town & Greenwich Town

 

JLP

PNP

Difference in Votes between candidates

2002

 618

 9716

9098 (PNP)

2007

601

9360

8759 (PNP)

St. Andrew North West

Derrick Smith (JLP) EXPECTED WINNER

Granville Valentine (PNP)

Smith will pummel his 7th political victim. Valentine will get a repeat of the loss he faced against Mair in the 2009 by-election in NE St. Catherine only with a wider margin. The trade unionist will soon have to either be more selective in where he chooses to try and represent or stick to his day job.

Communities include: Havendale & Chancery Hall

 

JLP

PNP

Difference in Votes between candidates

2002

 5480

3708

1772 (JLP)

2007

 5794

3909

1885 (JLP)

Central Kingston

Ronald Thwaites (PNP) EXPECTED WINNER

Rosalee Hamilton (JLP)

While in the 2011 elections Thwaites will not lose his seat there is a downward trend in the constituency (away from the PNP) that must not be overlooked. With a major swing for the JLP, Hamilton could expect in the future to be victorious.

Communities include: Allman Town & Rae Town

 

JLP

PNP

Difference in Votes between candidates

2002

3268

 5435

2167 (PNP)

2007

 3745

 5210

 1465 (PNP)

East Kingston & Port Royal

Phillip Paulwell (PNP) EXPECTED WINNER

Peter Sangster (JLP)

Another garrison constituency that will not change hands. Paulwell is guaranteed to make his walk down Duke Street and into Gordon House.

Communities include: Norman Gardens & Springfield

 

JLP

PNP

Difference in Votes between candidates

2002

 1324

7791

 6467 (PNP)

2007

 1455

7183

 5728 (PNP)

Western Kingston

Desmond Mckenzie (JLP) EXPECTED WINNER

Earl Dawkins (PNP)

Victory is certain for the governing party but the margin will be something to watch. The community of Tivoli has been through so much over the last few years that it will be interesting to see if this affects voter turnout. Will McKenzie who has been a constant in the constituency for a long time be able to bring hope and motivation in order to maintain high voter turn out?

Communities include: Denham Town & Tivoli Gardens

 

JLP

PNP

Difference in Votes between candidates

2002

 11251

2099

 9152 (JLP)

2007

10295

1577

 8718 (JLP)

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