Hanover & St. Mary: The Battleground Seats

Posted on December 12, 2011

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 Central St. Mary

Morais Guy (PNP) EXPECTED WINNER

Lenon Richards (JLP)

Try as he may Lenon will not be able to wrestle this seat from the 2-term MP. While Morais is not a prominent national figure he is in a constituency that can be considered safe for the PNP. While the old guards in the name of Terry Gillette and Harry Douglas are no longer on the scene, St. Mary is still primarily PNP territory. The JLP’s Bobby Montague does not seem ready to accept this scenario and is doing all he can to change the face of the parish but nothing can stop the PNP from being victorious in Central St. Mary at this time.

Communities include: Highgate & Port Maria

Voting Data – Central St. Mary

 

PNP

JLP

Difference in Votes

2002

 7602

4746

2856 (PNP)

2007

 7687

5755

1932 (PNP)

Western St. Mary

Robert Montague (JLP) EXPECTED WINNER

Joylan Silvera (PNP)

Bobby Montague will sail home to victory with time to spare. This star in the JLP has risen from the trenches and is one of the gatekeepers of victory for many new JLP candidates in the party. Note that in the last election the PNP fielded a “big wig’ (Delano Franklyn) to challenge Montague but have opted this time to accept their fate and is offering Silvera as the sacrificial lamb.

Communities include: Boscobel & Carron Hall

Voting Data – Western St. Mary

 

PNP

JLP

Difference in Votes

2002

 8196

7347

849 (PNP)

2007

 8255

9022

767 (JLP)

South Eastern St. Mary

Richard Creary (JLP) EXPECTED WINNER

Winston Green (PNP)

Creary will be trying to do what his brother Don only dreamt of doing in 1997 and 2002. Tarn Peralto managed to eek out a 34 vote victory for the JLP in 2007 which suggests that Creary will not have an easy task ahead of him. Things get even dicier when one considers the fact that there seems to be a divide among the Labourites who support Creary and those who feel that Tarn was treated unfairly. Two other factors that may prevent this seat from staying in the grasp of the JLP are (1) if the PNP enumerated more persons on the current list (2) the national mood toward the JLP. Even with this, ExpatOnTheGo still believes that Green will not be able to beat Creary given the latter’s status as Councillor in the constituency and Mayor of the parish. Combine that with Creary’s close connection with the JLP’s strong force of campaigning called Montague et al and the JLP may be able to count this constituency in their victory column.

Communities include: Richmond & Annotto Bay

 Voting Data – St. Mary South Eastern

 

PNP

JLP

Difference in Votes

2002

 6181

5796

385 (PNP)

2007

 6925

6959

34 (JLP)

Western Hanover

Ian Hayles (PNP) EXPECTED WINNER

Donovan Hamilton (JLP)

Victory in this seat will partially depend on which party ran the better enumeration exercise and the support either candidate gets from his party headquarters. If PM Holness had called the election earlier then Hamilton would have won as the euphoria around the new PM would have propelled him and many other JLP borderline candidates over the edge. As it stands, the issues surrounding the national security minister and the spy plane saga are dampening the jubilation around Holness and may have a negative effect all around but especially so for candidates such as Hamilton. Is ExpatOnTheGo willing to take a stand on who will win this constituency? Yes, the seat will remain with Ian Hayles and the  People’s National Party.

Communities include: Lucea & Green Island

 Voting Data- Western Hanover

 

PNP

JLP

Difference in Votes

2002

 5152

5616

464 (JLP)

2007

 7313

7140

173 (PNP)

 

Eastern Hanover

Paula Kerr Jarrett (JLP) EXPECTED WINNER

DK Duncan (PNP)

This constituency will be a true battle on election day. If I were a gambler this parish would be a big one to set up a betting ring around. DK Duncan is a campaigner extraordinaire while Kerr Jarrett is a political newbie from a privileged background who does not have anywhere near the experience of her opponent. If the voting data were even slightly different, ExpatOnTheGo would be forced to call this seat for Duncan but with a JLP 756 vote victory in 2002 and a 10 vote victory for the PNP in 2007 there is no doubt this seat will be won or lost on the night. If Duncan is on his game then the newbie is out but if he is not, then the JLP will chart up another victory.

Communities include: Hopewell & Sandy Bay

Voting Data: Eastern Hanover

 

PNP

JLP

Difference in Votes

2002

5152 5908 756 (JLP)

2007

6068 6058 10 (PNP)
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