Manchester is Tricky, Portland will not Change & St. Thomas May Just be all Green

Posted on December 9, 2011

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An ExpatOnTheGo reader has specifically requested that Manchester be covered and as such her wish is my command. In addition to Manchester, today’s post will zoom in on the constituencies in Portland and St. Thomas. As usual please share your comments and analysis.

South Manchester

Michael Peart (PNP)

Collin Virgo (JLP)

The voting pattern for this constituency reflects a growing trend of a significant increase in the number of votes for the JLP and a stagnancy in the numbers for Michael Peart and the PNP. From an academic standpoint  the G2K General Secretary should win this seat but Manchester has been Peart country for a long time so it will not be an easy task. The thrust by the JLP to unseat the PNP General Secretary from the neighbouring constituency may provide the extra boost that Virgo needs to conquer the mighty Peart. If the JLP pulls this off it can go down in history as a mighty triumph.

Communities include: Alligator Pond & Porus

Voting Data – South Manchester       

 

PNP

JLP

Difference   in Number of Votes Between Parties

2002

8088

5656

2432 (PNP)

2007

8290

7455

835 (PNP)

 

 

North Western Manchester

Timothy Scarlett (JLP)

Mikael Phillips (PNP)

This seat is another hard call but is also showing signs of Peart fatigue. The only difference is that Dean Peart, unlike Michael in South Manchester,  is not seeking reelection. Peter Philips’ son is trying his luck in a constituency that is no longer a ‘safe seat’ for the PNP. Could it be that Mikael Philips is destined to lose against unknown entity Timothy Scarlett? At this time ExpatOnTheGo is not willing to make a prediction but let it be said that at least one of the two former Peart seats may be crossing over to the green side.

Communities include: Spur Tree & Mile Gully

Voting Data – N.W. Manchester

 

PNP

JLP

Difference   in Number of Votes

  2002

6881

4169

2712 (PNP)

 2007

6481

5544

937 (PNP)

 

 

Central Manchester

Danville Walker (JLP) EXPECTED WINNER

Peter Bunting (PNP)

In 2007 it was thought that Sally Porteous had a chance of beating Peter Bunting but it was not to be so. This time around the JLP will take the seat with Danville Walker at the helm riding on the work put in by Sally and on his reputation to get the job done. In addition, it is being rumoured that he will capture the votes of many returning residents who worry about security issues (they are speculating that if the JLP is successful in the elections PM Holness will name Danville the next Minister of National Security). Even with all the extra spending, speculations and media spotlight, a victory for the JLP is not a given because a loss of the seat by the PNP’s General Secretary would be most embarrassing for the Opposition party.To prevent this they will be doing all they can to maintain their hold on the constituency.

Communities include: Mandeville & Royal Flats

Voting Data – Central Manchester

 

PNP

JLP

Difference   in Number of Votes

2002

8307

7185

1122 (PNP)

2007

8453

8338

115 (PNP)

 

 

North East Manchester

Audley Shaw (JLP) EXPECTED WINNER

Valenton Wint (PNP)

Mr. Wint does not have what it takes to unseat Audley ‘Man a Yaad’ Shaw who has been MP since 1993 and whose standing as Minister of Finance has him gaining the respect of many Jamaicans as well as high popularity ratings.

Communities include: Christiana & Walderston

Voting Data – N.E. Manchester

 

PNP

JLP

Difference   in Number of Votes

2002

6553

7411

858 (JLP)

2007

7022

8436

1414 (JLP)

 

 

Eastern Portland

Lyndale Bloomfield (PNP) EXPECTED WINNER

Patrick Lee (JLP)

Even with the departure of Donald Rhodd the PNP should easily win this constituency. The numbers are clearly in favour of the Opposition Party as the JLP doesn’t even have a distant memory of victory in this seat.

Communities include: Port Antonia & Fellowship

Voting Data – Eastern Portland

 

PNP

JLP

Difference in the Number of Votes

2002

 8082  5781  2301 (PNP)

2007

 9236  7441  1795 (PNP)

 

 

Western Portland

Daryl Vaz (JLP) EXPECTED WINNER

Rohan Quest (PNP)

While there may be those who think that  Daryl’s glory and political capital is waning there is little doubt that this constituency will remain in the grasp of the JLP. Western Portland can be considered more of a JLP seat than a PNP leaning constituency and with Daryl’s personality and will to stay afloat Rohan Quest is not expected to be strolling down Duke Street this time around.

Communities include: Buff Bay & Balacarres

Voting Data – Western Portland

 

PNP

JLP

Difference in the Number of Votes

2002

 5804  5523  281 (PNP)

2007

 6033  6977  944 (JLP)

 

 

St. Thomas Eastern

Patrece Charles-Freeman (JLP) EXPECTED WINNER

Fenton Ferguson (PNP)

The story here is a classic tale of Ferguson whips elder Charles, sends him fleeing to Clarendon and daughter Charles returns to stake her claim and avenge the Charles name. It will not be easy but ExpatOnTheGo believes that the Charles charm shall reign supreme once more in St. Thomas Eastern. Pity to see Ferguson go but his margin has been slipping and Patrece seems to mean business.

Communities include: Morant Bay & Bath

Voting Data – Eastern St. Thomas

 

PNP

JLP

Difference in the Number of Votes

2002

 7399  6073  1326 (PNP)

2007

 7599  6651  948 (PNP)

 

 

Western St. Thomas

James Robertson (JLP) EXPECTED WINNER

Leonard Green (PNP)

Blah blah blah…Even though beaten, slandered and downtrodden Robertson will beat Green and beat him solidly. The James Robertson who entered representational politics for the 1997 elections with a pouch around his waist and no clue as to grass roots politics does not exist anymore. Green will face off with a seasoned well-oiled politician who loves to campaign and is good at it.

Communities include: Seaforth & Yallahs

Voting Data – Western St. Thomas

 

PNP

JLP

Difference in the Number of Votes

2002

 7390  8700  1310 (JLP)

2007

 7442  9581  2139 (JLP)
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