The JLP Will Win the Parish of St. Catherine

Posted on December 7, 2011

8


Do Not Forget to Vote

Between now and December 29th, ExpatOnTheGo will provide analysis and predictions on particular constituencies across Jamaica. Feel free to leave your comments and counter-analysis or predictions for myself and other readers. Let us start a lively debate during this election season.

Given that the parish of St. Catherine is quite large, the discussion will start with this parish’s 11 constituencies. Home to many veteran politicians such as Babsy Grange, Ken Baugh and Bobby Pickersgill, St. Catherine seems to be trending towards the JLP . Two new constituencies have been formed and several sitting  councillors and the parish’s two mayors are on the ballot as parliamentary candidates.

Constituency: St. Catherine North Western

Robert Pickersgill - EXPECTED WINNER

Dr. Sandra Nesbeth

The JLP must be desperate to field Dr. Nesbeth for the umpteenth time for a loss in this seat. Could be the JLP does not ever see the party claiming this  constituency.

   Communities include: Ewarton &  Lluidas  Vale

 St. Catherine East Central (newly formed constituency)

Camille Buchanan (JLP) EXPECTED WINNER

Arnaldo Brown (PNP)

Two new candidates to parliamentary elections. Camille has been a councillor for a long time while Arnaldo’s only dabble in politics saw him being defeated in the last     local government elections in the Westchester Division in PortmoreCamille’s experience as a veteran politician and a people person will give her the edge. Numbers will be close.

Communities  include: Gregory Park & Portmore Pines

 St. Catherine South Central (newly formed constituency)

Andrew Wheatley (JLP) EXPECTED WINNER

Vincent Morrison (PNP)

Though a new seat, the pieces that have been put together completely favour the JLP. Wheatley is also the perfect candidate for a seat of this nature. Vincent will be     pommelled. Victory will be by thousands.

Communities include: Homestead & Horizon Park

St. Catherine North Central

Natalie Neita Headley (PNP) EXPECTED WINNER

Raymoth Notice (JLP)

Nothing more to say other than that Natalie will once again beat Raymoth in his attempt to serve in Gordon House.

Communities include: Above Rocks & Angels

 St. Catherine South Western

Everald Warmington (JLP) EXPECTED WINNER

Anthony Ewbanks (PNP)

Find a candidate who is able to beat Warmington in this seat and you would have found a mighty force to be reckoned with. Love him or hate him Warmington is good at what he does.

Communities include: Old Harbour & Church Pen

St. Catherine North Eastern

Gregory Mair (JLP) EXPECTED WINNER

Abe Dabdoub (PNP)

With the right candidate for the PNP this seat could be considered marginal but with Abe Dabdoub at the helm for the Opposition party Gregory Mair should sail home to victory quite easily. Keep in mind that Abe won this seat for the JLP in 2002.

Communities include: Guys Hill & Troja

St. Catherine South Eastern

Keith Blake

Collin Fagan (PNP)

This will be a battle seat. Kingsley Sangster was the last JLP candidate to win this constituency in the 1980s. What makes this one interesting is that the candidates know each other very well from their days as Councillors in the Municipality of     Portmore. Collin is a strong candidate but Keith is an old-school style politician who will knock at every door and go without sleep to reach his goal. Hard to call but strong chance Collin will become a 1-term parliamentarian.

Communities include: Independence City & Edgewater

St. Catherine South

Fitz Jackson (PNP) EXPECTED WINNER

Keith Hinds (JLP)

The Mayor of Portmore will be beaten and beaten badly. Even with the JLP enclaves of  Newland & Naggo Head this is a seat with more votes for the PNP than a tally of the JLP supporters and the undecided voters. Turn your mind to the fact that Andrew Wheatley is the sitting Councillor for the Naggo Head Division & he has chosen a different seat through which to serve in Parliament: hint hint, St. Catherine South is not winnable for the JLP without a massive swing across the country.

Communities include: Greater Portmore & Hellshire

 St. Catherine Central

Olivia Grange (JLP) EXPECTED WINNER

Maurice Westney (PNP)

The money spent in this seat would be better served given to charity. The seat belongs to the JLP. Not even sure if the great Karl Samuda could have won this constituency for the PNP. The only question here is the margin of victory. Babsy win by.

Communities include: Ensom City & Hampton Green

 St. Catherine Eastern   

Denise Daley (PNP) EXPECTED WINNER

Sharon Haye Webster (JLP)

          

The chances of Sharon Haye Webster winning are highly unlikely. Not only are we talking about high PNP numbers but we must also keep in mind that Denise is a     formidable character who is a seasoned politician from her days as a Councillor in Pickersgill’s constituency. There is also too much animosity around Sharon having crossed the floor for her to pull off an upset. Communities include: Dela Vega City & Greendale

St. Catherine West Central

Kenneth Baugh (JLP) EXPECTED WINNER

Clifton Clarke (PNP)

Clifton cannot beat Dr. Baugh at this time. It would take a massive swing for a newly installed PNP candidate to win a seat of this size and culture.

Communities include: Ginger Ridge & Point Hill

Advertisements